UK unemployment rose to 5.0% in Q3 2025, the highest since mid-2021 and slightly above expectations. The number of unemployed increased by 117,000 to 1.789 million, mainly among those out of work for up to six months or over a year. Employment fell by 22,000 to 34.192 million, marking the first drop since early 2024, driven by fewer full-time jobs. The employment rate slipped to 75.0%, while the activity rate stayed at 79.0%. People holding second jobs edged up to 1.33 million, or 3.9% of workers.

Economic growth slowed, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising just 0.1% in Q3, down from 0.3% in Q2 and missing forecasts. Annual growth eased to 1.3%. Production fell 0.5%, led by manufacturing (-0.8%) and mining (-1.5%), with motor vehicle output plunging 10.3% after a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover. Services grew 0.2%, and construction rose 0.1%. Monthly GDP dropped 0.1% in September as production slumped 2%, its sharpest fall since January 2021. Services rebounded 0.2%, supported by retail and education, while construction edged up 0.2%.

German economic sentiment weakened in November, with the ZEW Indicator slipping in October and coming in below expectations. Confidence fell amid concerns over structural challenges despite government investment plans. Meanwhile, the current conditions index rose slightly, signalling ongoing economic strain.

Inflation in Germany continued to ease, with the harmonized rate falling to 2.3% in October from 2.4% in September. Goods inflation slowed as food prices moderated, although some categories like sugar and meat saw notable increases. Energy prices declined further, led by heating oil and electricity, while services inflation edged higher to 3.5%, driven by transport and social services. Core inflation held steady at 2.8%, and monthly consumer prices rose 0.3%, slightly above the previous month’s 0.2% increase.

In France, unemployment ticked up to 7.7% in Q3, its highest since 2021, as 44,000 more people were out of work, though the rate remains well below its 2015 peak. Employment indicators were broadly stable, with activity and part-time rates unchanged. Inflation also softened, with the harmonized annual rate revised down to 0.8% in October from 0.9%. Energy prices fell sharply, particularly for electricity and petrol, while food inflation eased and core inflation slowed to 1.2%. Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up 0.1%, reversing a sharp drop in September.

US small business sentiment weakened in October, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipping to its lowest level in six months. Owners reported softer sales and profits, while labour quality remained the top concern, cited by 27% of respondents. Job openings that could not be filled held steady at 32%, highlighting ongoing hiring challenges. Expectations for better business conditions fell, and both actual and planned price increases eased, signalling cautious outlooks among small firms.

In housing, mortgage rates edged higher for the second straight week, with the average 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.34%. Despite this, purchase applications jumped 5.8%, suggesting resilient demand in markets with more inventory and slower price growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continued to shrink, and President Trump announced a rollback of tariffs on over 200 food products to ease grocery costs, alongside plans for a $2,000 payment to lower and middle-income households funded by tariff revenues.

Japan’s producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in October, slightly easing from September’s revised 2.8% but beating expectations of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4%, marking the second consecutive rise. Meanwhile, Japan’s current account surplus surged to a record JPY 4.48 trillion in September, driven by a sharp improvement in the goods balance and higher returns on overseas investments. Exports grew 8.6% year-on-year, outpacing imports at 1.7%, while the primary income surplus widened significantly.

In China, credit conditions remained tight as outstanding loan growth slowed to 6.5% year-on-year in October, the weakest pace since records began in 1998. Industrial production growth also moderated to 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September and below expectations of 5.5%, reflecting softer manufacturing and mining activity partly due to the Golden Week holiday. For the first ten months of the year, industrial output rose 6.1%, while monthly growth was just 0.17%.

Retail sales in China grew 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly below September’s 3.0% but ahead of forecasts of 2.7%. Consumer spending was supported by subsidies and holiday demand and year-to-date retail trade is up 4.3%.

China’s labour market showed modest improvement, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate edging down to 5.1% in October from 5.2%, marking the lowest level in four months. Joblessness among migrant workers remained lower at 4.7%, and average weekly working hours stood at 48.4. For the first ten months of 2025, the national unemployment rate averaged 5.2%.

GBP / EUR – Current 1.1335 Previous 1.1380

The Pound edged higher against the Dollar (+0.07%) but slipped versus the Euro (-0.40%) last week. Investors remained cautious ahead of a potentially busy week, with the long-awaited release of US economic data and anticipation of the UK government’s upcoming budget later this month.